FanPost

My take on the cap situation

Much has been made of the cap space the Devils have at their disposal this off-season, in fact the cap still remaining is a prevailing discussion. I think this tells an incomplete story based on a few restricted free agent re-signings that are yet to occur and several crucial re-signings in the near future. I want to take a look at where the cap is now, what it will likely look like after the Devils lock up their own, and the cap space I'd like kept available for next season. I think spending now and worrying about the cap later is short sighted and quite frankly stupid, that's a short trip to cap hell and I'd like Ray Shero to be the fleecer, not the fleeced. I'm not suggesting the Devils shouldn't spend (I LOVE the Subban trade), just that it's critical to have a long term salary cap plan.

The very basic starting point with the salary cap situation is a pretty simple one, per CapFriendly the Devils have a cap hit of $55.73 million leaving $25.77 million in available cap space. To get a better picture of where the Devils stand I used the armchair GM feature to give contracts to Will Butcher and Pavel Zacha. I referenced the fantastic AAtJ article written by CJ earlier this off-season to gauge these contracts, I gave Zacha 2 yrs at $2.12 million (2.6% of the cap) and I gave Butcher 6 yrs at $4.8 million (I don't know the exact % of the cap that Severson's contract was worth when he received it, but I suspect Butcher's contract will mirror that). I also signed Agostino to a 1 yr $800,000 contract and Carrick to a 1 yr $1.5 million contract, but as these contracts are only 1 year I am not concerned about their impact. These contracts would raise the cap hit to just over $68.4 million leaving just over $13 million in cap space.

This is where things start to get a bit sticky for me, between Hall, Hischier, Bratt and Blackwood I expect to need at least $15 million for contract extensions in next season's cap. It is worth noting that Andy Greene and Sami Vatanen are scheduled to come off the books next season freeing $9.875 million in cap space (I'm ignoring the other expiring contracts as they are mostly roster filler and would still be needed next season). In regards to Greene I would argue he still has value to this team beyond this year, even if it is not commensurate with his current wages, he may be re-signed at a discounted rate. If he is not, some replacement would need to be brought in (to manage PK responsibilities but also additional cap hit). Vatanen is a unique and interesting situation, his trade value could be weaponized with the cap by retaining max salary (50%) as the cap is needed next year, not this. Either way he will also need to be re-signed or replaced. Ray Shero seems to prefer to get value rather than risk losing a player for nothing, which I respect and appreciate, so I anticipate Vatanen will either be extended soon or traded. My preference is to trade Vatenen in a package for a top 6 winger, possibly also taking back an albatross contract (as long as it expires after this year) to steal a talented young forward (Bratt's versatility allows either a right or left wing).

I'd like to quickly circle back to the contract extensions of Hall, Hischier, Bratt and Blackwood. My understanding of the CBA is that these players can be extended after July 1 so long as the cap space is available next year (I couldn't find any stipulations limiting this on ELC's, but if anyone has information I'm missing please let me know). I would like Hall, Hischier, and Bratt extended this summer if possible. Hall for the obvious reasons, I'm not going to elaborate on that one. With Hischier and Bratt I think their value is only going to go up (and therefore their cost as well). If they would agree to long term extensions this summer I think the Devils would likely get excellent value, if Shero doesn't sign either of these guys I will not hold it against him as it is likely these players betting on themselves to improve their value. In Blackwood's case I just don't think the proof is fully available for an extension. I'd rather pay him a bit more after he proves it than get burned on a perceived bargain deal based on a small sample size that may or may not be representative of his long term ability.

Even with the available cap space next year somewhat shrinking, I do think the Devils should still add a top six winger, and this brings me to explore value contracts to maintain room for the important signings next year will bring. As I mentioned earlier I am happy to explore the idea of trading Vatanen while retaining max cap this year as well as taking on a bad contract expiring after this year to add said top 6 winger. I'm also very open to the idea of shopping Miles Wood, last year left a sour taste in my mouth for Wood and I think his role can easily be replaced with cheaper contracts. I've recently started to wonder what a 3rd line of Coleman/Zajac/Rooney would offer. Anderson, Seney, Bastian, and Hayden are also value contracts that could fill in the 3rd and 4th line roles on the right. Coleman brings obvious value to the left side (or right if needed), Boqvist looks like a strong bet to be able to bring value to at least the 4th line and Agostino showed me enough last year to get another look this year. It's possible Boqvist isn't ready yet and Agostino turns back into a pumpkin à la Stefan Noesen, but I think this team has enough bottom 6 depth (and a knack for finding bottom 6 talent on the waiver wire) to risk shopping Wood. The defense is a little uglier, maybe Josh Jacobs is ready to be a depth option/3rd pairing guy. Carrick looked serviceable last year as a 3rd pairing defender. After that I don't see much on the right, so trading Vatanen could create an issue there. Losing Greene might be even uglier as Jeremy Davies left in the Subban trade. The Devils could bring back Mueller, but the only way it makes sense to keep him this year for me is as the 7th D-man, which likely means letting Carrick walk unless Vatanen is gone. I don't anticipate keeping both Mueller and Carrick as 7th and 8th options. After that the Devils are maybe looking at Colton White...yikes. My preference on the Greene situation next year is to give him a 1 year deal with a cap hit to be determined after the core guys are locked up. Effectively I am looking for a stall tactic until the Devils find someone to absorb his PK minutes.

In summary, the remainder of this summer is both vital and relevant to the long term success and sustainability of the Devils. Ray Shero should likely continue to improve this current roster while balancing his available cap space for next season so that he can lock up 4 (hopefully) key Devils in Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt and Mackenzie Blackwood. Shero must also prepare to address the departure or re-signing of Andy Greene and Sami Vatanen as well as evaluate the value of current contracts to this team. It's no simple matter, and not an issue best left to deal with only after it has become problematic. I think Ray Shero has positioned himself well to build an incredible long term Devils roster, and I look forward to more Shero magic making it all happen.

What do you all think of this situation? Is my distaste for Miles Wood too unfair? Did I miss any clear and obvious solutions?

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