How Bad the New Jersey Devils Have Been by Period This Season

On Thursday night, I witnessed Andrej Sekera score an equalizer on the very first shift of the second period. The New Jersey Devils managed to not concede any more goals but it was another example of a second period letdown. On Friday night, even though the Devils played much better, there was another breakdown in the middle frame of regulation. I can even tell you right off the top of my head some last minute letdowns in the second period; namely, Dylan Larkin scoring with less than ten seconds left in the second period on Black Friday and Justin Schultz putting Pittsburgh up 3-2 with about 3.2 seconds left in the second. Throughout various points in this season, the second period has been a woeful one for the New Jersey Devils. Is that really true? I decided to find out prior to the Vancouver game on yesterday.

First and easiest to figure out, which period has been the costliest for the Devils. Thanks to NHL.com, there’s a goals by period section in their team stats section.

NHL.com

Their count of third period goals does include empty net goals. For all intents and purposes, I would like to ignore those goals against. The net is empty because the Devils are already losing late in the game and want an extra skater in the hopes of tying the game up or bringing the game closer. It’s not something that happens in the first or second period. Therefore, I want to compare goals against goaltenders and that is why I noted six empty net goals separately. The Devils have allowed thirty six non-empty net goals in the third period, and so their goal differential is only -4.

That’s worth noting because that just makes the second period stick out even more as a bad period. The Devils have clearly conceded more non-empty net goals in the second than any other period. What’s also concerning is that the Devils have been nearly consistent in how many goals they have scored in each period. It’s consistently low. For all of the concern about defense and goals allowed, offensive remains as an issue for the 2016-17 New Jersey Devils.

Let’s go a little deeper. I went through every game’s Game Summary at NHL.com to record the time and period of each goal allowed so far in this season. (Remember: this does not include the game against Vancouver.) I wanted to see whether the Devils had a real problem with giving up goals early in periods and late in periods. I broke down time into three phases for both early and late. For early, I have goals against within the first five minutes of a period, the first three minutes of a period, and the first minute of a period. I have similar categories for the ends of periods to represent late goals. This way we do not get bogged down in arguing what is really early or late.

Data from Game Summaries through NHL.com

Surprisingly, the Devils do not really have an early or a late goal problem. In the first and third periods, the majority of goals allowed have been within the middle ten minutes of each period. The second period is an exception, but if there’s a concern, it’s more or less with goals allowed early. Goals allowed in the last five minutes represent just under 25% of all goals allowed in the second period. Goals allowed in the first five minutes represent just under 29% of all goals allowed in the second period. Neither really sticks out as being an issue all season long. I expected to see more late goals; especially since I could remember a couple of them clearly. But that has not really been the case. This isn’t to say the Devils should allow more goals in the final minutes of the period before addressing the issue. It’s to say that it has not happened as often as one may think.

Let’s go back to period-by-period play. We know second periods have been costly on the scoreboard more than the first and third periods. Is that true when it comes to shot and attempt differentials? While goals are significant, how the Devils have performed with respect to shot and shot attempt (Corsi) differentials would point to how the run of play has been in each period. After going through the Devils’ games at Natural Stat Trick, which has period-by-period breakdowns for shots and attempts, I can tell you what that is.

Data from NaturalStatTrick.com

Now, this is interesting. The second period has the lowest shot differential, but both the total shots for and shots against are higher than the other two periods. It’s the same way with the Corsi differential chart; the second period has been the highest for both attempts by and against the Devils. More surprising to me is that while the shot differential is the lowest in the second period, the third period has a worse attempt differential. In both charts, the Devils have outputted the least amount of shots and attempts in third periods in this season. It suggests that while the Devils have conceded more goals in second periods, third period play has been an issue.

If we focus on just 5-on-5 play, the third period really stands out as the worst period from a run of play perspective.

Data from NaturalStatTrick.com

In just 5-on-5 play, the Devils’ offense just withers in the final third of regulation and at a larger degree than their opponents. Why would this be the case?

One idea comes to mind: playing to the score. I’ve noted earlier in this season that the Devils are the only team in the NHL that does not out-shoot and out-attempt their opponents when they are losing by a goal. That post was a little over a month ago. According to Corsica prior to Sunday’s games, the Devils remain in the red in terms of SF% (47.47%, last in NHL) and CF% (47.46%, last in NHL) when trailing. And when a team is leading, the opposition generally attacks more so a leading team is going to have SF% and CF% below 50%. The Devils are no different in that regard according to Corsica; when leading, their CF% (42.72%) is the tenth lowest in the NHL and their SF% (41.64%) is the fifth lowest in the NHL. What this means is that the Devils are generally being out-shot and out-attempted in 5-on-5 play when trailing or leading. And by the third period of a game, that score situation drove the Devils’ opponents to really put the Devils down. Especially if they’re down one goal late in the third period; teams will be more aggressive to tie it up (which has happened a number of times this season). That just drives an already negative shot and attempt differential to be even lower.

All the same, this shows that the Devils’ performances in third periods could stand to be a lot better even if they are not conceding as many non-empty net goals as the second period. This surprised me because I’ve seen plenty of terrible second periods by the Devils. I decided to take a step back and realize that the Devils have played more road games (25) than home games (19). By record, the Devils have been better at home (10-6-3) than on the road (7-12-6 before the Vancouver game). Perhaps a split would show where the second period issues really lie. I decided to break down the all situation data between home and away.

Data from NaturalStatTrick.com

Data from NaturalStatTrick.com

There’s the problem. Road second period performances have been the sticking point. While I am including all special teams play, I wanted to see how entire periods have went and the results are astounding. Second periods have largely went well at home. The Devils have posted positive shot and attempt differentials. Goals aside, it’s been a far cry better than the other two periods at the Rock. But the road games. Oh, the road games have just been miserable. Even with six game disparity, the Devils have been so bad in road second periods compared to other road periods and home periods. The -79 shot differential and -117 attempt differential are just standing out in the worst way. If there’s an area to look closer at, then it’s that for sure. I am curious whether this will hold when the Devils do play more home games. February is not that far away.

OK, so let’s sum up what was learned. The Devils have a worse goal differential in the second period than any other. There isn’t a real issue with early or late goals; the Devils should seek to address them but its not driving their large number of non-empty net goals allowed in the second period. Ditto for first and third periods. A breakdown of shot and attempt differentials for 5-on-5 situation play shows that the third period may be more of a problem period in the run of play. A home and road split of all situation shot and attempt differentials show that second periods on the road have been the worst of the bunch - even considering that the Devils have played six more road games than home games.

What can the Devils do about this? What can they do to improve second period play, or at least stop bleeding goals? In my mind, there are direct and indirect ways to do this. The direct way would be for the Devils to consider their management of players in the second period. Road games are challenging enough with not having the last change. Throwing in the long change means that getting pinned back is additionally painful. That they’ve iced the puck more in second periods on the road than any other period adds to that pain. Most of all, the second period occurs after an intermission where both team’s coaching staffs have a chance to make tactical adjustments based on what happened in the first. I fear that whatever John Hynes and his staff are (or are not) adjusting has not been working and it takes another period to sort it out. The worse differentials in 5-on-5 play suggest those have not been working either. Therefore, that’s where I would think real changes need to start to start finding improvement.

I would prefer that they follow the indirect path. Through all of these charts, one thing is clear: this is a bad team. The team has been out-scored, out-shot, and out-attempted in every period. While the first period has been better than the other two, it’s still negative. The third periods have seen a big drop in events, which does not help at all when the Devils are losing in said third periods. Even though they have dragged sixteen games beyond regulation, they’ve lost more games beyond regulation than not (3-2 in shootouts, 4-7 in OT). It seems trite, but the team needs to be improved in all aspects to see some improvement period by period. Over the last month or so, while I’ve called the coaching into question, I really do think that the talent level isn’t high enough. I think what we’ve been seeing is that the X’s and the O’s aren’t really working with the Jimmy’s and the Joe’s and both leave something to be desired. So my thinking is that improvements there will lead to gains in period by period play. Focusing more on puck possession instead of dumping and chasing, power plays where players know where to be and aren’t losing pucks, defensive coverages that do not just fall into collapsing around the slot and praying they get to the loose puck, and more will help turn the tide in shot and attempt differential.

Incidentally, a future state to shoot for would be what we saw against Calgary on Friday. The Devils managed to execute so much better at passing the puck, breaking the puck out, and limiting second and third chance opportunities by the opposition. The results was an excellent first period; a second period that went against the Devils but it was not at all domination; and a solid third period that didn’t feature a Devils team just sitting on a one-goal lead. More performances like that will lead to improvements in time; perhaps enough to have the Devils have a positive differential over the season in a period. Replicating that kind of performance would be a good way to see improvements across the board - and improvements in the team itself. Rebuilding requires improvement; it’s something to shoot for in the second half of this potentially already-lost season.

What do you think of all of this? Did you also think the second period has been a problem period for New Jersey? Are you surprised to see that the third has also been problematic to a degree? What about the timing of the goals against; did you expect to see that most of them have not come early or late in periods? What do you think the Devils should do to address these problems? Please leave your answers and other thoughts about the Devils period-by-period play in the comments. Thank you for reading.