As of this writing, it has now been exactly one month since Jaromir Jagr was traded, and the Devils began to fold the season, trading Marek Zidlicky a few days later. So now that we've had the opportunity to see what Detroit and Florida have gained in the last 10 games or so, and what we have lost, I figured we could analyze the cost-benefit and see if we made the right decision.
Zidlicky in Detroit
Below are Marek Zidlicky's stats before and after the trade (retrieved from ESPN.com):
Zidlicky has caught fire since going to the motor city. He has scored 8 points in 11 games (60-point pace) and has anchored a Detroit Red Wings powerplay that was the best in the league before the trade even happened. He leads the team in powerplay points and goals since he's joined them with 3/3/6.
He was an anchor in NJ as shown by the gaudy time on ice stat in addition to him combining with Greene to be the only Devils to play in every game. In Detroit, he's clearly been more of a specialist, spending only 18 minutes per game on the ice, 3 of which are with the man-advantage.
The Zidlicky Trade Effect
Below are the teams Powerplay stats courtesy of WAR on Ice:
Though the conversion percentages of each team have plateaued, and the GF60 (Goals For per 60 minutes) are similar, there is clearly some added oomph to the Detroit PP. Their SF60 (Shots on goal per 60) has gone from a good 52.7 (15th in the NHL) to a stellar 68.3 (1st in the NHL). The Devils have similarly seen a decrease in that production. The Zid-effect is clearly shown by this before and after as well as from his individual stats.
Jagr in Florida
Below are Jaromir Jagr's stats before and after the trade (retrieved from ESPN.com):
Jagr has been exactly as productive as Zidlicky since leaving, scoring 8 points in 11 games, and improvement on his 29 in 57 pace in NJ. He is 3rd in scoring since joining the team. He's also seen a modest increase in his time on ice, but a significant increase over the TOI of his last few months in NJ -- he played 15:30 after the coaching change. He's been about as productive as you'd expect, but his real effect is seen with his main linemate as will be shown in the next section ... so now.
The Jagr Trade Effect
The stats below (courtesy WAR on Ice) are the same format as the Zid stats above but are significantly less telling.
As you'd expect there is a modest corsi effect from Jagr leaving as the Florida's CF% increased by 0.8% and our decreased by 0.8%. That's not significant enough to attribute to Jagr anyway though and the rest of the stats seem to be ridiculously similar, which is strange considering the quality of play Jags is capable of. So where is the effect?
The biggest difference can be seen in his effect on his young linemates, Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau. Pierre LeBrun even took notice of his effect on ESPN's Cross Checks Blog. As mentioned before, Jagr is 3rd in scoring since joining the Panthers. But one of the guys above him probably owes Jagr a pretty big thank you. Jonathan Huberdeau (aka NOT johnny hockey) has seen his P60 (points per 60 minutes) skyrocket from 2.03 before the trade to a 3.13 since the trade. Also, according the Hockey Analysis WOWY charts, Huberdeau improves from a 51.1% possession player to a 54.3% despite having an OZ% (offensive zone start percentage) decrease from 51 to 43 when he gets Jagr. That is a MASSIVE net possession effect. It's the largest on the team among forwards who have logged at least 100 minutes with Huberdeau and if you control for zone starts, its the highest of any player on the team. Jagr is being used to bring along Florida's most encouraging young prospect... well other than that Ekblad guy.
We lost what we thought we lost. Zidlicky is a force on the PP even more so now that he's in a better offensive system. That is really a match made in heaven isn't it? And with Jagr we lost a possession force and a reliable veteran presence. However, considering the stat the team is in, I will gladly take the combination of picks that we've garnered. Just remember to root for Detroit in this year's playoffs. If they get to the cup we get a 2nd rounder for Zid.
Did we lose more than we thought. Has Zid's production on the PP in Detroit shown you we have have undervalued him? Has Jagr's consistent possession influence swayed you one way or the other with regards to losing his talents? Or are you satisfied with the two or three 2nd or 3rd round picks that we've garnered? Leave your opinion below in the form of words.