An Early Look at the All-Important Home Stretch

About a month ago, I took a look at the October schedule for the New Jersey Devils, commenting that I felt it was very important for the team to start off much stronger then they did last year.  While it is extremely early to be discussing the end of the season already, I thought it would be a nice bookend to that other article to discuss the March schedule for our favorite team, along with the few April games.  Barring any serious movement in a positive or negative direction this year, more than likely by the end of February the Devils will be fighting for a playoff spot with a few other teams in the Eastern Conference.  Therefore, what the Devils do in March and early April will largely determine whether or not they make the playoffs.  So, let's take a quick look back at the home stretch last year, along with the team's performance before finally analyzing how difficult this home stretch will be.

March and April...2014

Last year, at the beginning of March, Mike did an article about how easy the remaining schedule was for New Jersey.  As he wrote, the team had the fifth-easiest schedule in the east, based on score-adjusted Fenwick.  This was a favorable schedule for the team, and one that they needed if they were going to make a concerted playoff push.  As noted by Shrp Sports, on February 28^th the Devils had a record of 25-22-13, and sat 5 points out of a playoff position.  They needed to win some games, and win them consistently if they were going to overtake some teams and finish in the top 8 of the conference.

Unfortunately, as we all know, the team did not take advantage of their easy schedule, and ultimately failed to make the dance.  Looking at last year's schedule from the Devils' official team website, here is how the team did:

So, overall the team had a record of 10-7-5, for 25 points.  While that is not terrible, it also does not stand out as being particularly great given the team's strength of schedule and need to make a strong push for the playoffs.  Where did they really fall off?  There are several spots one can point at, both from looking at this chart and from memory.  The first misstep was in the home-and-home split against Detroit.  The Devils really needed to win both of those games, as Detroit was just above them in the standings and taking all 4 points there would have put NJ in a strong position.  However, they got crushed 7-4 in the second game, which was a major blow.  The real heartbreaker in my opinion, however, was the dismal showing on the Florida road trip.  New Jersey arguably needed to come home with 3 out of 4 points from the Panthers and Lightning, but instead got a goose egg.  That was the major nail in the coffin.  After that, they were really just grasping at straws.

This year, the team will almost certainly need to perform better down the stretch in order to make the playoffs.  How does the schedule look though?  Let's see.

March and April...2015

Again, all scheduling information courtesy of the Devils official webpage:

At first glance, the schedule down the stretch is shorter by three games.  That would most likely be because of a lack of an Olympic break this year.  This makes the schedule a little easier right off the bat, because there is more rest.

In terms of opponents, it is a little hard to determine difficulty at this point because by March, these teams can look very different than they do now, both because of injury and trades.  Some teams we may expect to do well may flop, and teams we expect to dwell in the cellar may in fact be in the hunt for a playoff spot.  However, based on how they look now and projections for this season, I would say that the quality of opponents is definitively higher than it was last year.  After the Nashville game, five of the next six games are against teams who made the playoffs last year, and the one team that didn't, Arizona, just missed the playoffs by two points.  Then more towards the bottom, there is another stretch where NJ plays six straight games against teams that made the playoffs last year, beginning with Anaheim on 3/29 and ending with Tampa on 4/9.  Those two stretches alone could very well be brutal if those teams continue to play well this upcoming season.

Looking at the actual schedule, the team plays three back-to-backs during this stretch which can be difficult for sure.  Also, the Devils have a three game road trip against Minnesota, Colorado, and Arizona which will certainly be challenging.  There is no major home stand after March 8^th either, meaning the team will never really get to be settled at home either.

So What Does This All Mean?

In the end, I would say that this year's home stretch looks to be much more difficult than last year's was.  A majority of the games played will be against teams that made the playoffs last season, and the three back-to-backs along with a lack of a major home stand make the schedule no easier.  Again, it is impossible to currently determine the exact quality of opponents given that March is a long way out, but we can get a decent look at what to expect nonetheless.  And it looks to be challenging.  With any hope, the Devils will come into the home stretch riding high, instead of having to gain ground.  I fear that if our favorite team is out of a playoff spot on March 1^st, they may not be able to overcome the schedule to jump into one by April 12^th.

What Do You Think?

Looking at the schedule for yourself, what do you think?  Is this year's home stretch going to be harder than last year's, or do you see it from a more positive perspective?  Where do the Devils need to be by March 1^st in order to have a good shot at the playoffs?  Please leave your comments below, and thank you for reading.