The Way-too-Early Severson-Fayne Comparison

Last season, the top defensive pairing of Andy Greene and Mark Fayne worked wonders for the New Jersey Devils.  They played tough minutes, were rarely sheltered in terms of offensive zone draws, and still managed to produce positive numbers.

Sadly, the duo was broken up during free agent frenzy when Fayne signed a long term contract with Edmonton.  Brian lamented the loss in his recap of that day here.  With his shutdown capabilities and strong possession leaving for the far northwest, it was clear that whoever would replace him on the top pairing with Greene would have big shoes to fill.

In came Damon Severson.  His excellent training camp and preseason impressed Peter DeBoer enough to start him opening night over Adam Larsson.  He played that night with Greene, and has played there ever since.  The pairing has been successful, posting some great numbers.

Since he looks to be Fayne's literal replacement for the time being, I wanted to do a way-too-early comparison of the two.  I will compare Fayne's overall statistics last year to Severson's start this year, as well as comparing how both have done this season specifically.  I know that the sample size is still really small at 7 games played, but with the first month of the season coming to a close, I nonetheless thought it was a good time to take an initial look.

Fayne Last Year

First off, we let's look at Fayne's stats from last season.  Stats here come from Hockey Analysis and Behind the Net.  Note: all statistics are at 5v5 play.

These are solid numbers overall.  He started more shifts in the defensive zone yet came out very positive in possession, played a decent amount per night, and played nearly the entire season.  He only scored 3 goals and 10 points at 5 on 5, but he was not there to light the lamps, but instead to prevent goals.  To this effect he did well, allowing an average of 2.37 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 action.  He was also quite unlucky last season with a PDO of 963, so his stats may have been suppressed some.

Since we are also discussing these numbers specifically in relation to playing alongside of Greene, it is important to also check out Fayne's With or Without You numbers for Andy Greene.  These would look like this:

This is obviously only a shortened list of statistics, but they are telling nonetheless.  Last season, Fayne spent the overwhelmingly large majority of his time on the ice with Greene, to the tune of over 78% of his season at 5 on 5.  During that 78%, his Corsi was through the roof, at a dominating 57.6%.  He also only gave up 2.29 goals per game at 5 on 5.  When he was away from Greene, however, his stats take a dive.  His Corsi fell to a miserable 47.2%, which was well below the team 5v5 average last season of 54.4%.  He also gave up more goals, to the tune of 2.68 goals per game.  To me, this all means that Fayne was an excellent defenseman with Andy Greene, but was just a mediocre defenseman without him.

Fayne This Year

This season, now handsomely paid, Fayne is manning the blue line for the Edmonton Oilers.  Through his first 7 games played, here are the statistics from Behind the Net and Hockey Analysis (previously linked): Note: all statistics are at 5v5 play.

Suffice to say, Fayne has not had a great start to his tenure in Edmonton.  As compared to last season, his minutes have dropped, his Fenwick has plummeted to anemic levels, his relative Corsi as compared to the rest of Edmonton (not known to be a possession giant) is laughable, and this is all while receiving over half of his zone starts in the offensive zone.  The only statistic that looks promising is goals, as scoring one goal per 7 games would net him a quality 11 goals over the course of a full season.  Clearly, however, he has not yet brought to the far northwest what had worked for him in Newark.

Severson This Year

Now, let's take a look at Andy Greene's new partner in crime, Damon Severson.  Before listing his stats for the first 7 games, let me first qualify that these are the first 7 games of his NHL career, and so everything should be taken with a grain of salt.  Maintaining consistency at 20 years old in your rookie season is an extremely tough feat.  We will most likely see ebbs and flows in terms of his production.  The hope, however, is that playing alongside Greene helps to minimize the down points of his season while simultaneously elevating the high points even further.  So without further ado, here are the stats from Behind the Net and Hockey Analysis.  Note: all statistics are at 5v5 play.

I think that these stats come as no particular surprise because of how well Severson has been playing.  His possession stats have been absolutely amazing.  The relative Corsi is especially impressive because New Jersey is usually a strong possession team...but perhaps what makes it even more impressive is that the Devils have not been possessing the puck as well as they usually do, yet Severson is going against that trend.

The other really impressive statistic in my opinion is his offensive zone start percentage.  He is being regularly asked to break his team out of trouble, and is successfully doing so.  This is the sign of a seasoned veteran, not a young rookie with only seven games of experience.  Whereas the likes of Eric Gelinas are extremely sheltered with zone starts, the youngest defenseman is given the toughest assignments in the toughest locations on the ice and succeeding.

Finally, I am declining to show the WOWY numbers for Severson with Andy Greene.  This is because he has played extremely limited minutes away from Greene, making those stats even more unreliable than anything else I am writing about here.  Let's hold off on that until later in the season, and for now just go with the fact that almost all of Severson's production has come with Greene alongside him.

Comparing the Two

Now that we have the stats written out, let's do a quick comparison.  Comparing Severson to Fayne last year, Severson currently has better numbers in almost every statistic I wrote about.  Yes he has no assists so far, but that is sure to change.  The one scary stat is the PDO, which shows that Severson has been really lucky whereas Fayne was not.  If Severson loses some of that luck, his numbers may regress back towards what Fayne did.

Looking at just this season, there is no comparison.  Fayne has had a real troublesome start up in Edmonton, while Severson is having an amazing rookie season.  If Fayne were producing his current numbers in New Jersey, it would be a serious issue for this team.  I do not even think I need to go into it much further than that.

Conclusion

Overall, I think it is safe to say that if Damon Severson continues to produce at a somewhat similar level this season while playing in Mark Fayne's old spot alongside Andy Greene, all Devils fans should be happy with the tradeoff.  Yes Fayne was a real quality shutdown defenseman for this team, but what Severson has brought so far has been nothing short of great.  He is producing both offensively and defensively while playing regular minutes against opponents' top competition.  I really hope that he continues to play and produce at a high level.  If that is the case, the Devils really cashed in big with their second round pick from 2012 and are currently paying a top-line defenseman next to nothing for the next three seasons.  Yes we do not really know how he will perform on a pairing with someone other than Greene, but I believe he has shown enough that we should not be overly nervous about that prospect if and when it occurs.

What do you think?  Are you happy with the change from what Fayne did last season to what Severson is doing this season so far?  Do you expect Severson to continue to play at a high level, or do you see a drop off coming in the future?  If so, how bad will it be, and will it make us wish we had Fayne back?  Please leave your comments in the section below, and thanks for reading.